The Impact of Some Macroeconomic Variables on Economic Growth in Singapore for the period 1990-2023

This research aims to study the impact of selected macroeconomic variables on economic growth in Singapore using the ARDL model. Singapore is an efficient and resilient economy, and the Singaporean economy has been affected by various internal and external factors over the years. The study focuses on key macroeconomic indicators, including inflation rate, unemployment rate, real interest rate, total imports, and total exports. To determine their short-term and long-term effects on GDP growth. Using time series data for the period (1990-2023), the distributed lag autoregressive approach allows for the analysis of both short-term dynamics and long-term relationships between variables, even when data are combined at different levels [1(0) & 1(1)]. The results indicate that, in the short term, volatility in inflation, interest rates, and unemployment rates has a significant impact on economic growth. In the long term, imports, exports, and interest rates play a more critical role in Singapore's GDP growth. The policy implications of the findings suggest that maintaining stable unemployment and inflation rates, low interest rates, and promoting exports while regulating imports are critical to achieving sustainable economic growth in Singapore. This study also provides policymakers with insights on how macroeconomic stability and international trade policies can enhance Singapore’s economic trajectory.