Spatial Modeling of Flood Probability in the Duhok Basin

The rapid climate changes and the increasing frequency of extreme weather phenomena, such as heavy rainfall and snowmelt, coupled with human activities like unplanned urban expansion, deforestation, and river diversion, have imposed immense pressure on ecosystems and infrastructure in many regions worldwide. With the growing risk of floods and their devastating impacts on communities and economies, there is an urgent need to develop advanced scientific methods to identify flood-prone areas and manage them effectively.
The research problem stems from a central question: Can spatial modeling using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) play a role in identifying areas prone to flooding, and what is the flood probability scenario in the Duhok Basin? In light of this, the research hypothesis posits that spatial modeling using GIS plays a significant role in identifying flood-prone areas. Thus, the research aims to identify potential flood-prone areas and demonstrate how GIS technology can be utilized in this field. The use of this technology opens new avenues for studying water resources and producing flood probability maps. To achieve this goal and validate the hypothesis, a set of factors influencing flood probability was modeled using data from various sources. Natural factors with ordinal scale measurements were integrated to create a modeled flood probability map for the Duhok Basin. The modeled map revealed that flood probability decreases in the steep mountainous areas located in the north, northeast, and west of the basin. This is attributed to their high elevations and steep slopes, which facilitate rapid water drainage and low-density water network systems. Conversely, flood probability increases in flat, low-lying areas, particularly in urban regions in the center of the basin, as well as in some flat areas in the northern part of the basin. This is due to the gentle slopes, very low vegetation density, high-density water network systems, and low lineament density in these areas, all of which contribute to the increased likelihood of flooding.